Let's break it down. The Conservatives need an election now, in spite of the polls. As the global economy softens, so too will their electoral prospects. Voters blame incumbent government's for the global economy. It doesn't make any sense, but it's true.
I imagine that Stephane Dion's apparent backing away from election talk has everything to do with this. The Liberal strategists know what I know: the worse the global economy gets, the more and more Canadians will be looking for a quick fix to it. The quick fix will be: The Liberal Party of Canada. They'll use the election to remind Canadians of the good economic times under the Liberal's in the nineties and promise to deliver Canada back to prosperity. Canadians will buy it.
So I imagine that the Conservatives are mulling over a poison pill right now, that will force Dion to pull the plug.
The key is to make it as non-obvious as possible, and not damage the government going into an election.
I'm putting a 50% chance on the CPC being successful in engineering it's own defeat, and a 75% chance of a Liberal victory in the next election (whenever it will be) if they fail.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
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8 comments:
I think an economist is preferable to a sociologist in a downturn.
Also, who says the global economy is tanking...oh, the media. I don't see any indication that our economy isn't strong. One sector, manufacturing, which is dying because of high union wages is suffering, but because it's all about Ontario, and not the West, we are told our economy is going to get worse.
Look at what the banks are doing right now, they are tightening up on loans, just when they should be easing credit, why, they lost big time in the US mortgage market, and now we are paying for it. This has nothing to do with the government.
Liberals might be surprised when the economy stays strong. It's time for unions to get real in their demands.
I just can't see the Conservatives making any gains in Quebec while there are constant reports about suicide bombers in Afghanistan. And in Ontario the economy is already going bad.
I think Harper should keep on governing. For one thing I am hopeful McCain may be President and they will get along great. The longer they are in opposition, the longer the Liberals will fight one another.
hey shut-up with your negative thoughts. Or Steve will ruin your career, and if you dont have one yet, he'll make sure you will not in the future.
Shut-up
no thinking no talking.
Enuf said?
Shut-up
I agree that the economy will become an increasingly important election issue. I think your estimate that if the Conservatives don't trigger the election early the Liberals have a 75% chance of winning the next election is way too high though. For starters, it depends on how long before the next election. If Harper governs until 2009 who knows what state the economy will be in. It may even become a non-issue (I mean, as a sore point for the CPC; the economy is always an issue). But let's say the government doesn't collapse before the spring and the economy takes a down turn. Harper could easily pin it on the fact that his economic initiatives were hampered by the opposition, yada, yada, yada. Unless something drastic happens besides a slow economy, I think a 50% chance of the Liberals winning is a generous estimate.
Also, who says the global economy is tanking...oh, the media. I don't see any indication that our economy isn't strong. One sector, manufacturing, which is dying because of high union wages is suffering, but because it's all about Ontario, and not the West, we are told our economy is going to get worse.
I admit that I'm unsure how the Canadian economy will fair in the coming months. Given how the Canadian economy has performed against the American economy for the last ten years, the new conventional knowledge is that the Canadian economy is resilient.
However, much of the Canadian economic indicators are buried in the performance of the resource sectors.
Other risks remain: increasing consumer debt, uncertain continued performance of the capital markets, etc.
Look at what the banks are doing right now, they are tightening up on loans, just when they should be easing credit, why, they lost big time in the US mortgage market, and now we are paying for it. This has nothing to do with the government.
Well, I don't think loosening credit markets at the sign of every slowdown is a terribly good move. I'm sure Alan Greenspan and David Dodge would agree.
The fact is, that it's sometimes best to tighten credit markets going into a slowdown in order to bring the economy to a "soft landing".
As opposed to creating a short-lived rebound, fueled by cheap access to money, but unfounded on the basic economic fundamentals. People just go into more debt, and the recovery takes longer; You can actually make a downturn worse in the long-run.
I agree that the economy will become an increasingly important election issue. I think your estimate that if the Conservatives don't trigger the election early the Liberals have a 75% chance of winning the next election is way too high though.
I respectfully disagree. I think Harper's chances right now are very good. But I think in the event of a downturn, they will be very bad. Right now the Conservatives and the Liberals are fighting for soft support, among a segment of the population who acquiesce between each party depending on their current mood at any given time.
The Mulroney-Shreiber affair and a few days of bad headlines underscores how weak much the Conservative support is.
But it goes both ways. The Liberal support is also weak.
Right now, the Conservatives can fight a better election than the Liberal's can. And they don't have to fight over the economy.
I think right now, the Conservatives can firm up some of that soft support if they run a tight campaign, which I believe they are currently fully capable of. Harper would destroy Dion in an election.
So if I were advising Harper, I would be ignoring the polls and focusing on engineering an election, right now.
It's highly unlikely that the government can survive until the end of it's mandate (October 2009). Dion cannot politically afford to let it, or his new official label of "Lame Duck Leader of the Official Opposition" will be firmly established.
So given this, I believe that this is the correct time for the writ to drop for the Conservatives.
Hunter,
With over 12 million people living in Ontario, ( which is responsible for 52% of all canadian manufacturing), your dismissal of the serious problems facing ontarions is worrisome.
You have completely overloooked the results of a high dollar on the manufacturing sector. Instead, you blame the entire issue on unions?
We can't all move to fort mcmurray.
Yes but Anon @ 9:46, the dollar is a huge enviromental variable that no firm could possibly ever control. Therefore to bring manufacturing back to stability I am pretty sure tehy are all looking at what they considered enviromental variables and are trying to see how they can be controlled variables. I am pretty sure Union Wages top this list. Thus until the Unions start realizing the true value of their employees work their employees will continue to lose jobs. The thing is that unions can blame it on the Conservatives, Liberals or Bush all they want, the fact is that when labour costs can not adjust to such a globalized competitive marketplace their employers will generally lose. As people forget to realize when the businesses lose so do the employees!
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